Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 32.678413 35.177429 37.886006 41.060047 44.704084 48.789674 53.764173
2025-06-01 28.649645 31.920812 35.684987 40.404905 46.267187 53.456513 63.191234
2025-06-08 25.961422 29.527859 33.784658 39.357665 46.653802 56.188888 70.186948
2025-06-15 24.949033 28.923283 33.832872 40.535793 49.790652 62.728486 83.538054
2025-06-22 23.624519 27.763708 33.005936 40.389753 51.010786 66.685250 93.945939
2025-06-29 22.330566 26.518177 31.924716 39.729679 51.335161 69.259931 102.669513
2025-07-06 21.062254 25.208669 30.640489 38.631739 50.827907 70.371417 108.999005
2025-07-13 20.708303 25.071916 30.912839 39.754667 53.802925 77.677700 129.784336
2025-07-20 20.272193 24.786178 30.941630 40.496122 56.238219 84.512154 152.715371
2025-07-27 19.801387 24.417771 30.815944 40.971276 58.267052 91.002025 178.438048
2025-08-03 19.176546 23.797230 30.279499 40.743682 59.028080 95.114016 200.277156
2025-08-10 18.462022 23.014697 29.457649 39.987258 58.738365 96.941577 216.349739
2025-08-17 17.765341 22.244979 28.639401 39.218401 58.420922 98.847331 235.179886
2025-08-24 17.154338 21.574636 27.938540 38.596957 58.322728 101.290006 258.827484
2025-08-31 16.501807 20.817445 27.067785 37.626478 57.438791 101.673512 274.555529
2025-09-07 16.394428 20.847269 27.397715 38.718595 60.765385 113.495562 363.983176
2025-09-14 16.009005 20.449599 27.040629 38.583303 61.562233 118.900452 430.735912
2025-09-21 15.541992 19.912992 26.439536 37.971500 61.276310 121.176686 482.324009
2025-09-28 15.012836 19.266558 25.638656 36.952729 60.007391 120.257898 506.501136
2025-10-05 14.956404 19.326632 25.963523 37.994669 63.403887 134.916614 761.490575
2025-10-12 14.826349 19.268485 26.092311 38.681847 66.109730 148.705707 1189.743359
2025-10-19 14.652907 19.136389 26.091832 39.121883 68.303117 161.875644 2016.248979
2025-10-26 14.364740 18.817026 25.766531 38.911142 68.871744 169.024053 3155.921139